Expanded Multivariable Models to Assist Patient Selection for Long-Acting Cabotegravir + Rilpivirine Treatment: Clinical Utility of a Combination of Patient, Drug Concentration, and Viral Factors Associated With Virologic Failure.

BACKGROUND: Previously reported post hoc multivariable analyses exploring predictors of confirmed virologic failure (CVF) with cabotegravir + rilpivirine long-acting (CAB + RPV LA) were expanded to include data beyond week 48, additional covariates, and additional participants. METHODS: Pooled data from 1651 participants were used to explore dosing regimen (every 4 or every 8 weeks), demographic, viral, and pharmacokinetic covariates as potential predictors of CVF. Prior dosing regimen experience was accounted for using 2 populations. Two models were conducted in each population-baseline factor analyses exploring factors known at baseline and multivariable analyses exploring baseline factors plus postbaseline model-predicted CAB/RPV trough concentrations (4 and 44 weeks postinjection). Retained factors were evaluated to understand their contribution to CVF (alone or in combination). RESULTS: Overall, 1.4% (n = 23/1651) of participants had CVF through 152 weeks. The presence of RPV resistance-associated mutations, human immunodeficiency virus-1 subtype A6/A1, and body mass index ≥30 kg/m2 were associated with an increased risk of CVF (P < .05 adjusted incidence rate ratio), with participants with ≥2 of these baseline factors having a higher risk of CVF. Lower model-predicted CAB/RPV troughs were additional factors retained for multivariable analyses. CONCLUSIONS: The presence of ≥2 baseline factors (RPV resistance-associated mutations, A6/A1 subtype, and/or body mass index ≥30 kg/m2) was associated with increased CVF risk, consistent with prior analyses. Inclusion of initial model-predicted CAB/RPV trough concentrations (≤first quartile) did not improve the prediction of CVF beyond the presence of a combination of ≥2 baseline factors, reinforcing the clinical utility of the baseline factors in the appropriate use of CAB + RPV LA.

Population pharmacokinetics of cabotegravir following administration of oral tablet and long-acting intramuscular injection in adult HIV-1-infected and uninfected subjects.

AIM: To characterize cabotegravir population pharmacokinetics using data from phase 1, 2 and 3 studies and evaluate the association of intrinsic and extrinsic factors with pharmacokinetic variability. METHODS: Analyses were implemented in NONMEM and R. Concentrations below the quantitation limit were modelled with likelihood-based approaches. Covariate relationships were evaluated using forward addition (P < .01) and backward elimination (P < .001) approaches. The impact of each covariate on trough and peak concentrations was evaluated through simulations. External validation was performed using prediction-corrected visual predictive checks. RESULTS: The model-building dataset included 23 926 plasma concentrations from 1647 adult HIV-1-infected (72%) and uninfected (28%) subjects in 16 studies at seven dose levels (oral 10-60 mg, long-acting [LA] intramuscular injection 200-800 mg). A two-compartment model with first-order oral and LA absorption and elimination adequately described the data. Clearances and volumes were scaled to body weight. Estimated relative bioavailability of oral to LA was 75.6%. Race and age were not significant covariates. LA absorption rate constant (KALA ) was 50.9% lower in females and 47.8% higher if the LA dose was given as two split injections. KALA decreased with increasing BMI and decreasing needle length. Clearance was 17.4% higher in current smokers. The impact of any covariate was ≤32% on trough and peak concentrations following LA administration. The final model adequately predicted 5097 plasma concentrations from 647 subjects who were not included in the model-building dataset. CONCLUSIONS: A cabotegravir population pharmacokinetic model was developed that can be used to inform dosing strategies and future study design. No dose adjustment based on subject covariates is recommended.

Exploring predictors of HIV-1 virologic failure to long-acting cabotegravir and rilpivirine: a multivariable analysis.

OBJECTIVE: Efficacy and safety of long-acting cabotegravir (CAB) and rilpivirine (RPV) dosed intramuscularly every 4 or 8 weeks has been demonstrated in three Phase 3 trials. Here, factors associated with virologic failure at Week 48 were evaluated post hoc. DESIGN AND METHODS: Data from 1039 adults naive to long-acting CAB+RPV were pooled in a multivariable analysis to examine the influence of baseline viral and participant factors, dosing regimen and drug concentrations on confirmed virologic failure (CVF) occurrence using a logistic regression model. In a separate model, baseline factors statistically associated with CVF were further evaluated to understand CVF risk when present alone or in combination. RESULTS: Overall, 1.25% (n = 13/1039) of participants experienced CVF. Proviral RPV resistance-associated mutations (RAMs), HIV-1 subtype A6/A1, higher BMI (associated with Week 8 CAB trough concentration) and lower Week 8 RPV trough concentrations were significantly associated (P < 0.05) with increased odds of CVF (all except RPV trough are knowable at baseline). Few participants (0.4%) with zero or one baseline factor had CVF. Only a combination of at least two baseline factors (observed in 3.4%; n = 35/1039) was associated with increased CVF risk (25.7%, n = 9/35). CONCLUSION: CVF is an infrequent multifactorial event, with a rate of approximately 1% in the long-acting CAB+RPV arms across Phase 3 studies (FLAIR, ATLAS and ATLAS-2M) through Week 48. Presence of at least two of proviral RPV RAMs, HIV-1 subtype A6/A1 and/or BMI at least 30 kg/m2 was associated with increased CVF risk. These findings support the use of long-acting CAB+RPV in routine clinical practice.

Risk of myocardial infarction and abacavir therapy: no increased risk across 52 GlaxoSmithKline-sponsored clinical trials in adult subjects.

BACKGROUND: Recently, the Data collection of Adverse events of Anti-HIV Drugs Group (D:A:D) described results from their international observational cohort of 33,347 HIV-1-infected individuals, suggesting unexpected increased risk of myocardial infarction (MI) associated with abacavir (ABC) therapy [relative rate 1.9, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.47 to 2.45; P = 0.0001]. To contribute to the scientific question, we summarized GlaxoSmithKline HIV clinical trial data to determine if a similar signal emerged. METHODS: We compiled data from GlaxoSmithKline-sponsored clinical trials with > or = 24 weeks of combination antiretroviral therapy comprising 14,174 HIV-infected adults who received ABC (n = 9502; 7641 person-years) or not (n = 4672; 4267 person-years). FINDINGS: Baseline demographics and HIV disease characteristics, including lipids and glucose values, were similar. MI rates were comparable among subjects exposed [n = 16 (0.168%; CI: 0.096 to 0.273; 2.09 per 1000 person-years)] or not [n = 11 (0.235%; CI: 0.118 to 0.421; 2.57 per 1000 person-years)] to ABC-containing therapy. Results of 12 trials with randomization to ABC or not were consistent (2.15 per 1000 person-years vs. 4.10 per 1000 person-years). INTERPRETATIONS: In this pooled summary, we observed few MI events overall and no excess risk of MI with ABC therapy. It is unclear why results from this data set seem discrepant to the Data collection of Adverse events of Anti-HIV Drugs data set, particularly, as the non-ABC MI event rate is similar. Further data are needed to evaluate any association between ABC and increased risk of MI.